College Football Bowl Projections | Brett McMurphy’s Week 13 Predictions

College Football Bowl Projections for Week 13

Entering the final week of the regular season, there are 73 bowl-eligible teams qualified to fill 82 spots. There are 17 teams only one win shy of getting bowl-eligible, so there should be more than enough bowl-eligible teams to fill the bowl lineup. Right?

Well, not exactly.

Of the teams needing one win, there are two matches with the winner becoming bowl eligible: Ball State at Miami (Ohio) on Tuesday and Appalachian State at Georgia Southern on Saturday. That will guarantee at least 75 bowl-eligible teams.

Of the remaining 13 teams needing a win, only four are favored this week: Buffalo (-3) vs. Kent State, UAB (-17) at Louisiana Tech, Louisiana (-5) at Texas State and Southern Miss (-3½) at UL-Monroe. If all of the favorites win, then we’re up to 79 bowl-eligible teams.

That leaves nine more teams one win shy of earning a bowl berth. However, it won’t be so easy for those nine. All of them are underdogs this week: Missouri, Georgia Tech, FAU, Rice, Auburn, UTEP, Michigan State, Vanderbilt and Miami.

Nine 5-win teams play teams who have clinched a bowl. All 9 teams needing a win are underdogs via @CircaSports

Mizzou +5 Arkansas
Ga Tech +33 Georgia
FAU +5 WKU
Rice +12 at North Texas
Auburn +21 at Bama
UTEP +18 at UTSA
Mich St +16 at Penn St
Vandy +14 Tennessee
Miami +7 pitt

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) November 21, 2022

Depending on how many upsets occur involving these teams, we could fall anywhere from seven teams short or exceed the 82 teams needed. If so, ESPN will create an additional bowl to allow up to 84 bowl-eligible teams.

For this week’s projections, I am projecting we come up three spots short, so I am including three 5-7 teams to fill out the bowl lineup. Those teams, ranked by their Academic Progress Rates, are Rice, UNLV and Auburn.

Here are this week’s projections with Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s current college football betting power ratings.


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* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Cotton Bowl if he does not qualify for the College Football Playoff.

**If there are enough six-win teams to fill 42 bowls, ESPN will create another bowl not listed above. This week, Action Network does not project enough six-win teams for a 42nd bowl.

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